If you're an author considering traditional publishing, here's a number that should change your expectations:
19% of books published by the Big Five traditional publishers (Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Hachette, Simon & Schuster, Macmillan) sell 12 copies or fewer in their lifetime.
Let that sink in. Nearly one in five traditionally published books sells fewer than a dozen copies.
This isn't a secret the publishing industry keeps hidden—it's just a reality most authors never hear about until it's too late. Understanding why this happens reveals fundamental truths about how traditional publishing works, where the industry is heading, and why alternative publishing models have exploded in popularity.
Traditional publishers collectively generate $32.5 billion in annual revenue. That number sounds impressive, and it is. But it's built on a structure that prioritizes bestsellers and celebrity authors while treating the vast majority of titles as portfolio filler.
In traditional publishing, the economics look something like this:
The "midlist" refers to books that aren't expected to sell exceptionally well but are acquired to:
In theory, the midlist is where careers are built. In practice, it's where books go to die quietly.
Here's how that 19% figure breaks down:
If you're a debut author with a Big Five publisher, you have roughly:
And remember: these are traditional publisher numbers, where authors have agents, editors, and distribution through major retailers.
There isn't a single cause. It's a combination of structural factors:
Big Five publishers spend roughly 2% of revenue on marketing across all titles. That 2% is heavily skewed toward the top 5% of books.
A debut novelist might get $2,000-$5,000 in marketing support (if they're lucky). A celebrity memoir might get $50,000-$100,000.
Your book competes for attention with thousands of other titles released the same month. Without marketing support, it simply doesn't get discovered.
Bookstores (including Amazon) make money by selling what customers already want. They don't create demand—they capture it.
If your book doesn't have:
Retailers won't feature it. It gets buried in the algorithm or sits spine-out on a shelf.
Publishers make money on bestsellers. They lose money on most midlist titles. The midlist exists as a portfolio bet: "We'll sign 40 debut authors, hope 2-3 break out, and write off the rest."
This isn't evil. It's just math. But it means publishers have no incentive to deeply invest in most midlist books.
Agents earn 15% of author royalties. If your book sells 100 copies, your agent makes maybe $150. That's not enough to justify months of pitching, contract negotiation, and hand-holding.
Agents focus on books they believe can sell 10,000+ copies. Everything else is a "portfolio bet" they hope will surprise them.
Readers have limited time, money, and attention. They buy:
A midlist book without promotion, platform, or clear positioning doesn't hit any of those triggers.
The midlist problem isn't new, but it's accelerating for several reasons:
The Big Five used to be the Big Six. Before that, there were dozens of major publishers. Consolidation means:
When there were thousands of independent bookstores, each had different curation and selection. Now, Amazon dominates online sales and Barnes & Noble dominates physical chain sales.
Both optimize for what sells, not what deserves to be discovered.
Facebook and Instagram ads used to be cheap. Now, acquiring a new reader costs $5-$20+ per click. That math doesn't work for a book that sells for $15-$25.
Publishers can't profitably advertise most midlist books. So they don't.
Twenty years ago, a single review in the New York Times could sell 10,000 copies. Today, that review might sell 1,000 copies because media is fragmented.
Media coverage is harder to get and less impactful when you do get it. This hurts midlist books disproportionately.
Publishers now expect authors to bring their own audience. If you don't have 50,000+ followers, a speaking circuit, or media connections, you're less attractive.
This creates a catch-22: you need a platform to get a traditional deal, but you can't build a platform without a book. Hybrid publishing exists to solve this exact problem.
Here's the irony: while traditional publishers struggle with midlist economics, hybrid publishing is booming.
Hybrid publishing market: $7.8 billion in 2024, projected to hit $15.6 billion by 2031 (11.2% CAGR).
Why? Because hybrid publishers have different economics:
Hybrid publishers can afford to invest in marketing because their business model depends on author success, not just bestseller hits.
If you're choosing between traditional and hybrid publishing, factor in the midlist reality:
In other words: traditional publishing makes sense if you're willing to do most of the marketing yourself anyway, and you value the distribution and credibility more than active promotion.
In other words: hybrid publishing makes sense if you want a partner, not just a distributor.
Stop asking: "Will my traditional publisher market my book?"
Start asking: "What is my publisher's actual incentive to market my book, and does that align with my goals?"
For most Big Five authors, the honest answer is: "Their incentive is minimal unless you're already successful."
For hybrid publishers, especially those with in-house PR teams, the answer is: "Their success depends on your visibility."
Neither model is inherently good or bad. But understanding the economics changes everything about how you approach launch strategy, timeline expectations, and your role in creating visibility.
You are not your publisher's responsibility. You are a business line item.
The sooner you accept that, the sooner you can build a sustainable visibility strategy that doesn't depend on someone else's investment decision.
The Agency at Brown Books exists because we believe authors deserve a partner whose incentives are aligned with their success. That's not a marketing pitch—it's the structural difference between a publisher whose profit depends on exceptional outliers, and a partner whose profit depends on your visibility.
